Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Despite a Slight Overall Slip in Fourth Quarter GDP, the US Private Sector Did Well, with Potential Positive Implications Going Forward

US economic activity fell by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012, mainly due to reduced inventory accumulation and reduced military spending (th timing of defense purchases was the problem there). But a brief analysis on marketwatch.com suggests that the economy is not that badly off and probably not headed into a recession.

The positive news from the report includes: consumer spending rose at the fastest rate in two years; home construction grew at more than a 15% annual rate; and business capital investment rose at a sizable 8.4% rate in the fourth quarter, reversing a decline in the third quarter. In fact, private demand strengthened in the fourth quarter, rising at a 3.3% rate.

A major take-away from the GDP report,  the analysis says, is that contrary to what many politicians have been suggesting, cutting government spending reduces economic growth, especially in the short term.

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